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5-model meta-learner command center with dissent logging and Kenya credit-decision governance
| Model | Type | Role in ensemble | AUC | Weight | Last retrained | Inputs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash-flow scorer | GBM | lead scorer | 0.842 | 30.0% | 2026-06-12 | M-Pesa txn history + till turnover |
| Collateral risk assessor | Gradient boosting | LTV adjuster | 0.818 | 20.0% | 2026-06-18 | vehicle-intelligence + logbook age + forced-sale value |
| Identity risk scorer | Logistic | KYC gate | 0.772 | 15.0% | 2026-05-29 | IPRS confidence + NDID velocity + synthetic-ID markers |
| Network risk scorer | GBM | contagion signal | 0.801 | 20.0% | 2026-06-03 | Metropol CRB graph + chama co-membership + guarantor overlap |
| Meta-learner | XGBoost | final arbitration | 0.856 | 15.0% | 2026-06-24 | ensemble predictions + application metadata |
| Metric | Champion (GBM v3.1) | Challenger (XGB v2.4) | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUC (30d) | 0.842 | 0.857 | Challenger |
| KS | 0.421 | 0.438 | Challenger |
| Gini | 0.684 | 0.714 | Challenger |
| PSI | 0.08 | 0.06 | Challenger |
| Approval rate | 68.2% | 71.4% | Challenger |
| Cash-flow | Collateral | Identity | Network | Meta-learner | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash-flow | 100% | 86% | 82% | 79% | 88% |
| Collateral | 86% | 100% | 77% | 74% | 84% |
| Identity | 82% | 77% | 100% | 71% | 80% |
| Network | 79% | 74% | 71% | 100% | 78% |
| Meta-learner | 88% | 84% | 80% | 78% | 100% |
| Loan ID | Borrower | Dissenting model | Dissent reason | Meta-learner decision | Officer outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LN-KE-77341 | Kariobangi Metal Works | Collateral risk assessor | Forced-sale value below county median for logbook age | approve | Approved with 68% LTV cap |
| LN-KE-77318 | Makueni Poultry Supplies | Network risk scorer | Guarantor overlap with two PAR30 chama loans | refer | Referred for guarantor refresh |
| LN-KE-77294 | Roysambu Fresh Mart | Cash-flow scorer | M-Pesa inflows seasonal despite strong Metropol score | approve | Approved after supplier attestation |
| LN-KE-77251 | Eldoret Hardware Depot | Identity risk scorer | NDID velocity spike across linked phone numbers | decline | Declined pending KYC remediation |
| LN-KE-77209 | Kisii Textile Traders | Network risk scorer | Metropol CRB graph shows recent bureau contagion | refer | Manual review requested |
| LN-KE-77188 | Thika Auto Spares | Collateral risk assessor | Logbook lien and older NTSA transfer trail | approve | Approved with insurance condition |